By Nwabueze Nwambu
As Nigerians prepare for another election cycle in 2027, public debate is heating up. Many believe the current APC-led federal government has fallen short in key areas. The main opposition, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), has been in disarray since losing power in 2015, a situation some blame on internal sabotage, while others point to greed and poor leadership.
To challenge the APC, political figures are forming alliances, repairing old rivalries, and pooling resources in hopes of pulling off an upset. One such group is the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Party insiders suggest that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (North East) may emerge as its presidential candidate. Supporters argue that Atiku has the influence, connections, and resources to take on President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (South West) in 2027.
Still, many political observers believe that defeating the APC will require a popular candidate from Southern Nigeria. Someone who commands national appeal and is willing to serve just one four-year term before handing over to the North. Former Anambra State Governor Mr. Peter Obi, leader of the Obidients Movement and Labour Party candidate in the 2023 Presidential election, has publicly committed to this arrangement.
He maintains that four years, with the right policies, would be enough to reverse years of leadership failure.
However, Northern political elites may not fully trust this pledge.
Constitutionally, Obi could serve two terms, and there is concern that public pressure could push him to stay on if his first term is successful. In every presidential election, the North’s role is decisive due to its large voting population (INEC data, January 2023: 50,161,722 registered voters). Traditionally, power alternates between the North and South.
Another name beginning to gain attention is former President Goodluck Jonathan. Having served from 2010 to 2015, he is eligible for only one more term. During his presidency, he invested significantly in the North. He built rail projects, established seven federal universities, and built over 150 Almajiri schools. His administration also boosted the agricultural sector.
If Jonathan were to contest in 2027, the PDP might be more inclined to back him than Obi. The thinking is that Jonathan would serve a single term and then return power to the North, which aligns with the political calculations of many Northern leaders. Obi’s sincerity is acknowledged, but his ability to resist calls for a second term is seen as uncertain.
The question remains: Can the North afford to stay out of power for 16 consecutive years?
It’s a gamble many in the region may be unwilling to take.
Nwabueze Nwambu writes from Awka.
