Peter Obi And 2027 Election 

The last presidential election in 2023 brought something different from the usual dynamics of performance of candidates and political parties at such national polls. Ordinarily, the expectation is always that the bigger political parties dominate the contest with their candidates competing for the larger chunk of the votes, while the smaller parties merely scramble for the crumbs that fall down from the table of the big players.

To be certain, when I use the words “big” and “small” parties, I’m not unaware of the problematic implication of that categorisation. Hence it is only important that I clarify that by the size of a political party, I mean the number of political offices it controls at the material time. Thus, at the time of the 2023 elections, while APC and PDP which controlled a host of executive and legislative positions across the nation were to be classified as big political parties, the Labour Party, which sponsored Peter Obi, was nowhere near that categorisation.

This helps accentuate the point I made earlier that the last presidential election negated the usual dynamics of such previous elections. Peter Obi, a very popular candidate, completely re-wrote history by pulling off a formidable performance that gave both the APC and the PDP, the supposed big parties in the contest, a run for their money. The only time we saw something like that previously was in 2011, when Muhammadu Buhari, running on the platform of his newly created Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), won the presidential polls in seven states. However, while Buhari’s exploits were confined to the northeast, Obi’s electoral tsunami was felt well beyond his region of southeast.

Something remarkable about this is that the LP, just like the CPC, controlled not a single state prior to the said presidential elections. Their successes were thus disruptive of the established political order. Buhari lost the 2011 election, but in 2015, he became the candidate of a stronger platform, the APC, and the rest is history.

Peter Obi suffered the same fate in 2023, so what could be next? First, it is important to note the general belief among Obi’s supporters that he actually won the election but was a victim of rigging. As plausible as this thinking might seem, I’m not exactly certain as to the actual winner of the election. I voted for Obi but could not help thinking that he would have a poor showing in northern Nigeria, especially the far north, which might negatively affect his chances. He did in fact perform poorly there. Forget social media frenzy, the Obidient movement did not penetrate that enclave of Nigeria.

Those close to Obi will testify that he is an exceptionally smart person. So, his decision to be fraternising with the north, including by visiting mosques and breaking fast with Moslems, is evident of the man’s insight that he must gain more acceptance in that part of Nigeria if he will come out victorious in any future election. Given the dynamics of our political terrain, winning presidential election in Nigeria requires that one’s acceptance extends to both the north and the south, even if he is more accepted in one. History proves this perfectly.

Consequently, I think Obi’s presidential ambition will be much more auspicious if he can gain some ground in the north. The most reliable way of achieving this is by being sponsored by a party like the PDP which has a strong footing both in the north and south. Another way is for his LP to align with such a party that has presence in the north. As it stands today, the LP has no structure which Obi will ride on to presidential success. It was evident in the last election where his personal popularity, and not the structure of his party, made so much impact. Instructively, it was this personal popularity that gave LP visibility and not the reverse as is always the case. Of course, if he will run on the ticket of the party in 2027, then he will again be relying on his personal popularity, and there lies the difficulty. Not even in America, the acclaimed land of freedom, that a candidate, no matter how personally popular they are, can win the presidency without relying on the structure of either of the two dominant parties – the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.

While there are many people who believe that Obi will bring the much needed good governance, the reality is that he cannot secure the presidential seat based on this sentiment alone. Politics is a very complex terrain where a lot of factors, besides individual popularity, count. One of these is the strength of the political party sponsoring a candidate. In our own clime, unfortunately, factors like ethnicity and religion are also very influential (fortunately for Obi’s supporters, he is already trying to address this aspect by hobnobbing with northern Moslems).

Given all these circumstances, the odds were against Obi in 2023. He lacked the sort of political structure that propelled the likes of Obasanjo, Yar’Adua, Jonathan, Buhari and Tinubu to power. LP was not just strong enough to achieve this. This same pattern was seen in 1979 when, despite Zik’s overwhelming popularity, the NPP’s structure was not strong enough to help him upstage Shagari.

Obi’s 2023 outing was his first attempt to become the president. His conduct so far shows that he knows just too well that he still has a chance. He needs to remain on the scene, doing what he is currently doing to retain his popularity and extend it far into the deserts of northern Nigeria. He also needs to be patient because I don’t see him becoming the president as early as 2027. Tinubu will retain the presidency in the next election. So far, there is nothing suggesting otherwise. Forget about the hardship in the land, many people predicted Buhari’s fall in 2019 on account of his unpopularity; I was not impressed by this prediction founded on sentiments and wrote several times that he would retain his seat. The rest is history.

Henry Chigozie Duru, PhD, teaches journalism and mass communication at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria.