What Will Happen In 2027 Presidential Election?

It’s approaching a year since Bola Tinubu mounted the saddle as the president of Nigeria. Soon, the gladiators for the next election in 2027 will begin to show themselves. This time, it will be another case of opposition candidates fighting to oust a sitting president. The first runner-up in the last exercise, Atiku Abubakar, has already signalled his intention to throw his hat into the ring once again. The body language of Peter Obi does not in any way suggest that he would not seek to have his name on the ballot once again. Therefore, we can guess with almost certainly who the major contestants will be in 2027.

These opposition figures will be aiming at upstaging the incumbent in that exercise in which the major campaign issue will, as usual, be how to end the decades-long sufferings of Nigerians. History tells us that ousting the incumbent from power, especially in Africa, isn’t something to be hoped for as it is indeed a very rare occurrence. Even in an advanced democracy like the United States, electoral defeat of an incumbent is not a very common phenomenon. Out of the 45 presidents that have been elected in America, only 10 failed to win their second term election, implying that about 78 percent were re-elected. This is not a coincidence; the incumbent naturally possesses some advantage both at primary and general elections, just for being in power. For example, in the US, only five presidents had failed to get the party’s nomination for a second term. And out of these five, only Franklin Pierce was elected in his own right; others were vice presidents who merely completed the tenure of their boss who died in office – a pointer to why they could not secure ticket to run.

However, in Africa, the problem with the incumbent’s advantage is that it is often illicitly contrived; a product of criminality as against legitimate political dynamics. In Nigeria, the difficulty in removing the incumbent is not just restricted to the sitting chief executive, but also his party in power. Thus, even where the incumbent isn’t contesting, his party is almost certain of retaining power, no matter who is flying the flag.

Now, what should we expect in 2027? My answer is straightforward; Tinubu and APC will retain power. As things stand today, there is no basis for believing that the opposite will happen. Just like happened under Buhari’s first term, the suffocating suffering in the land today is producing so much wishful thinking and unfounded optimism that the current government will not last beyond May 29, 2027. I remember saying in some of the articles I wrote between 2015 and 2017 that I saw no reason yet why Buhari would not return in 2019. I also recall that some persons disagreed with me – evidently for no reason except to keep their hopes alive.

Many people believe that Tinubu came to power through electoral malpractice. Many people also believe that our previous leaders have been benefitting from electoral fraud in their bid to get and retain power. Similarly, given how things have been unraveling under the Tinubu government, many would be believing that he can only retain power through a flawed electoral process. If these beliefs are true, then anyone affirming that Tinubu will not return in 2027 must have to back up his argument with evidence that our flawed electoral system has been sufficiently addressed as to stop the incumbent from perpetuating self in power by hook or crook. This was exactly the argument I was making to show that those predicting Buhari’s loss in 2019 were merely engaging in wishful thinking.

Now 36 months to the 2027 elections, what has changed? Absolutely nothing. As it was in 1964, 1983, 2003, 2011, 2019, and 2023, so it has remained today. Over the years, a lot of significant reforms have been made in the electoral system. In the build-up to the 2023 elections, the new electoral act was passed with some significant changes in the election management process. Many people were hopeful that things will, perhaps, turn out differently this time.

However, we’re back to the reality that free and fair elections are a culture to be built over time through committed and concerted actions and not something to be wished into existence. Introducing technology and new electoral guidelines is just one aspect of the complex work needed to be done. There’s an inevitable need for these efforts to be complemented by other measures for a holistic effect. One of these measures is having a justice system that ensures penalties for those who flout the guidelines or try to compromise the technology.

During the last governorship election in Anambra state, result sheets uploaded on the INEC iRev for Abatete Ward in Idemili North LGA showed some “magical” figures where APC cleared all the polling units with unlikely margins. These results were eventually cancelled by INEC when they could not match the BVAS records of accredited voters. The popular rumour then was that the fake results were written in the house of a prominent APC chieftain from the town. An insider confirmed to me that this was true. But then, like thousands of other suspected electoral offenders in Nigeria, this man is still walking free instead of being in jail. Of what use are technology and guidelines if there is no consequence for the defaulters? Without a reward system that sanctions electoral misconduct, where do we wish to go from here?

This was the point I made in the part 2 of my article “2023 Elections And Nigeria’s Journey To Nowhere” published in this column on July 9, 2023, when I wrote, “As we continue to review the 2023 elections, the place of reward system in engendering or undermining our quest for credible elections cannot be overstated. A rationally aligned reward system that offers incentives for good deeds and imposes sanctions for bad deeds is crucial for the proper functioning of human society. So, Nigeria cannot have a lopsided electoral reward system that incentivizes rigging and yet expects free and fair elections, unless such transparent elections do fall from the sky…. [But] they aren’t manner that falls from heaven; they’re a product of sincere, disciplined, and sustained institution-building that results in the strict regulation of human conduct through entrenchment of norms, nurturing of values, and proper rewarding of conduct.

“On the contrary, what we have with us is a system that only pays lip service to commitment to credible elections as everything about the system encourages rigging.

“When rigging works and worse still comes with no consequence to the perpetrator, expecting it to just cease will be akin to a pipe dream. All the high-profile riggers from 1999, when the current democratic dispensation was inaugurated, are, to this day, still walking free rather than being in jail in accordance with the law, even as some of them are today disturbing us with boring sermons of how to conduct free and fair elections, conveniently overlooking their historical complicity in frustrating the nurturing of a credible system that will deliver transparent elections.

“It is easy to see why elections will continue to be rigged in Nigeria as long as the present system remains what it is. This is irrespective of how many BVAS machines or iRev portals imported from overseas for policing the process. No matter the number of CCTV cameras installed to catch thieves, as long as those caught are left to go scot-free, thieves will not fear the cameras. While technology is crucial for securing the integrity of our electoral process, more crucial is the role of human agents that operate the technology. No matter how sophisticated the gun you bought for security of your house may be, your safety is more critically dependent on the commitment, loyalty, and sincerity of the security man you procured to handle the gun.

“It’s, therefore, clear that our huge expectations prior to the 2023 elections, as inspired by technological innovations like BVAS and iRev, practically stood on nothing insofar as these technologies were not complemented by a reward system that will reliably check the conduct of humans that would work with the machine.”

As evident from the above, fixing our electoral system is a titanic task which scope transcends the electoral institutions themselves to include the police, the judiciary and others. As it stands today, we haven’t done much in this regard and so should expect nothing but a repeat of the past. The defeat of President Goodluck Jonathan was the only time in our history an incumbent head of state lost his re-election bid. It’s evidently an exception and never the rule. Let’s not be deceived by that.

In 2023, Tinubu was outside power. The powers-that-be in the Aso Rock Villa were said not to be positively disposed to his quest to be the president. The redesigning of the naira and the insensitively contrived cash scarcity were believed to be part of the grand ploy to frustrate his ambitions. Against all odds, Tinubu emerged as the president. Now that he’s the main man in the Villa, in control of the previously hostile CBN and other institutions that matter, who still doubts that he’s now much more than capable of pulling strings at elections? If it’s true that Tinubu was able to manipulate the courts while outside power, what he can do now as the nation’s number one man can only be left to imagination.

Unfortunately, no one appears to be talking about our electoral system anymore. Are we waiting till 2027 to begin again to attempt reaping where we did not sow? As long as we’re left with our current system, politicians will continue to exploit the gaps to steal power and perpetuate themselves there; only those of them outside power cry of rigging. Once they capture power, their song changes. It’s a catastrophic vicious circle.

Henry Chigozie Duru, PhD, teaches journalism and mass communication at Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria.